Fed Decision in January?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting at 62.0%.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Updated · Volume $558.3K
Across platforms
2.0 pt spreadWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
- Polymarket62.0%
- Kalshi64.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 62.0% | -3.5 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 34.5% | +4.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $558.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting, is priced at 62.0%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice