Jul 29, 2026
Resolved: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting — YES. A week before, markets priced it at 76%.
Fed Decision in July: Result & Final Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meetingResolved — markets priced this at 100% a week before
Updated · Volume $144.0M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 80.2% to 73.9% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 73.8% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 82.2% to 78.7% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 74.9% to 81.4% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 85.5% to 77.8% — a 7.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 87.8% to 75.0% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 92.3% to 81.3% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.3% — a 3.7-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice