Federal Reserve Rate Decision July 2026: No Change Odds
Markets price a 91.5% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting, making it strongly favored. The market will settle according to the FOMC's statement following the July 28-29, 2026 meeting.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $59.9M
Across platforms
0.5 pt spreadWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket91.5%
- Kalshi91.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 91.5% | +27.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 8.0% | -27.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The 'No change' scenario is strongly favored, while all other outcomes—ranging from various rate moves—are currently seen as long shots.
Context
Currently, the market gives a 91.5% chance of no change. The probability has moved between 61.5% and 94.5% over the tracking period. Over the last day, the odds shifted +27.0 pts. This market resolves based on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement after its July 28-29, 2026 meeting. It will settle to the ‘No change’ outcome if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is not adjusted. If the rate is changed, the resolution will be determined by the size of the move, rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. In the event that no statement is issued by the end date of the following scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to the ‘No change’ bracket. The key condition is the FOMC’s statement after the July 28-29, 2026 meeting. The market’s resolution date is Jul 29, 2026. The official publication on the Federal Reserve’s website serves as the resolution source. Any adjustments in market pricing ahead of the meeting reflect changing expectations, but the final outcome depends solely on the actual policy decision announced.
FAQ
What determines whether the Fed holds rates steady?
The market resolves to ‘No change’ if the upper bound of the federal funds rate remains unchanged after the FOMC’s July 2026 meeting.
How is a rate change measured?
The change is measured in basis points on the upper bound, and any change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points to fit the outcome brackets.
What happens if the Fed doesn't release a statement?
If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to ‘No change’.
When does the market resolve?
It may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement is released after the July 28-29, 2026 meeting.
Where is the official decision published?
The FOMC’s statement is available on the Federal Reserve’s website.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice