Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 41.9% to 37.4% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: Live Odds & Prediction Market
Prediction markets price Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026 at 39.4%.
39.4%-0.6 pts 24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Updated · Volume $6.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | 39.4% | -0.6 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | 25.1% | -0.6 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | 18.1% | -1.6 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | 8.2% | +0.2 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | 1.4% | +0.8 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | 1.1% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | -0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 94.1% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 30.8% to 41.5% — a 10.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 30.6% to 43.1% — a 12.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 34.4% — a 8.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 36.3% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 39.8% to 41.2% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 42.4% to 39.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 41.1% to 39.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 38.6% to 41.0% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 41.1% to 39.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $6.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026, is priced at 39.4%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice