Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 59.7% to 65.8% — a 6.1-point move over the past day.
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: Live Odds & Prediction Market
Prediction markets price Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026 at 65.8%.
65.8%-0.5 pts 24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Updated · Volume $7.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | 65.8% | -0.5 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | 17.8% | +1.4 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | 13.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | 1.8% | +0.4 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.1% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 16, 2026
Probability fell from 61.2% to 59.0% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Oct 15, 2026
Probability rose from 59.2% to 61.2% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 59.2% — a 26.7-point move over the past day.
Oct 13, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 51.0% — a 13.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Oct 6, 2026
Probability rose from 48.0% to 64.4% — a 16.4-point move over the past day.
Oct 5, 2026
Probability fell from 48.6% to 38.3% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.
Oct 3, 2026
Probability fell from 58.7% to 48.6% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Oct 2, 2026
Probability fell from 64.0% to 52.4% — a 11.6-point move over the past day.
Oct 1, 2026
Probability rose from 43.6% to 64.0% — a 20.4-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $7.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026, is priced at 65.8%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice