What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: Live Odds & Prediction Market
Prediction markets price a 29.8% chance that the upper bound of the target federal funds rate settles at the most favored level by December 2026, a a substantial minority view outcome that has drawn the largest share of bets.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Updated · Volume $6.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | 29.8% | -0.1 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | 29.1% | +0.8 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | 16.0% | -0.3 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | 10.4% | +1.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | 6.2% | +0.3 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.7% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.6% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.6% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.4% | — |
The distribution of probabilities shows a a substantial minority view preference for one specific rate level, with a second level seen as a a substantial minority view possibility at 29.1%. The next two scenarios are rated unlikely and unlikely each, and the remaining tail outcomes are all remote long shots.
Context
This market tracks where the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate will stand after the final FOMC meeting of 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. The resolution rules stipulate that the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with ties broken away from zero. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, the market settles based on the prevailing upper bound at that time. As of 11 min ago, traders place a 29.8% probability on the rate landing at the level that the market treats as the baseline scenario, a a substantial minority view view. The next most plausible outcome commands a 29.1% chance, also a a substantial minority view position. Other levels attract considerably less interest: the chance of a rate significantly higher or lower than the main cluster is unlikely and unlikely, respectively. The remaining eight possible outcomes are all long shots, collectively attracting negligible volume. The price has swung as low as 24.3% and as high as 41.6% during its trading history. Total volume in this market reaches $6.7M.
FAQ
What is the market asking?
It asks what the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate will be at the end of 2026, as determined after the December FOMC meeting.
How is the Fed rate defined for this market?
It is defined as the upper bound of the target federal funds range set by the FOMC, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points.
When does the market resolve?
It may resolve immediately after the December 2026 FOMC statement is issued. If no decision is released by December 31, 2026, it settles on the upper bound at that time.
What is the current probability of the most likely outcome?
The market gives a 29.8% chance to the scenario that has drawn the most support, which is characterized as a a substantial minority view view.
How are probabilities determined?
Prices are derived from a prediction market where traders buy and sell contracts linked to each possible rate level, reflecting collective expectations.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice