Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 6.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Fed Emergency Rate Cut Before 2027: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of an unscheduled Federal Reserve rate cut before 2027 at 5.9%, a reading that makes such a move unlikely. The event hinges on an emergency FOMC meeting—outside the regular eight-per-year schedule—that lowers rates between November 2025 and December 2026.
5.9%-1.7 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $218.8K
The scenario of an emergency rate cut is unlikely, with the remaining probability pointing to the 'No' outcome.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 6.5% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 6.1% to 3.9% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 6.0% to 3.9% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 3.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability has traded within a range from 3.4% to 8.6% and now stands at 5.9%. The market resolves 'Yes' if the FOMC holds an emergency meeting—any unscheduled gathering beyond the eight regular meetings per year for 2025 and 2026—and the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves 'No' otherwise. The resolution source is official Federal Reserve announcements (federalreserve.gov) or credible news reports of the meeting. The number reflects the window for action: any qualifying cut must happen after November 11, 2025 and before year-end 2026. The market settles on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome is validated against Federal Reserve communications, meaning the price can shift if traders reassess the likelihood of an unscheduled meeting within that timeframe.
FAQ
What qualifies as an emergency rate cut?
A cut is emergency if it occurs at an unscheduled FOMC meeting—outside the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings per year—and lowers the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
When must the emergency cut take place?
The cut must be announced between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
How is the outcome verified?
Resolution relies on official Federal Reserve announcements at federalreserve.gov or reporting by reputable news sources.
Do regular FOMC meetings count?
No. Only emergency meetings count; regularly scheduled meetings in 2025 and 2026 do not trigger a 'Yes'.
Does the size of the cut matter?
No. Any reduction in the upper bound of the federal funds rate at an emergency meeting is sufficient.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice