How high will inflation get in 2026?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026 at 22.5%.

22.5%+4.0 pts 24h

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Updated · Volume $1.3M

15%24%33%42%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?100.0%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?100.0%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?100.0%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?22.5%+4.0
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?15.5%+2.0
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?7.0%-3.1
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?3.4%0.0
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?2.7%-0.2

The top 5 outcomes account for 338.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 8 tracked outcomes and $1.3M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026, is priced at 22.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice