How high will US unemployment go in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026 at 5.0%.
5.0%+0.1 pts 24h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Updated · Volume $564.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | 5.0% | +0.1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | 2.7% | -0.6 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | 2.5% | +0.1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $564.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026, is priced at 5.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice