How high will US unemployment go in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026 at 14.8%.
14.8%+2.0 pts 24h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Updated · Volume $468.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | 14.8% | +2.0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | 7.4% | -0.1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | 6.7% | 0.0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 38.4% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $468.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026, is priced at 14.8%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice