How high will US unemployment go in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026 at 10.7%.
10.7%-0.1 pts 24h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Updated · Volume $484.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | 10.7% | -0.1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | 5.3% | +0.7 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | 5.1% | +0.0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | 4.9% | +1.4 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $484.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026, is priced at 10.7%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice