How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027 at 29.5%.
29.5%+3.0 pts 24h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
Updated · Volume $220.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? | 29.5% | +3.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | 27.6% | +1.4 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027? | 17.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? | 11.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? | 10.0% | +3.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027? | 1.1% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 186.1% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $220.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027, is priced at 29.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice