Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jerome Powell Federal Indictment Odds
As of 5 min ago, prediction markets put the chance of Jerome Powell facing a federal criminal charge by the end of 2026 at 2.3% — a scenario that a long shot.
2.3%-1.2 pts 24h
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $319.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026? | 2.3% | -1.2 |
| Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario of a federal charge is the focus of market attention, priced at 2.3% and a long shot; the alternative receives scant speculative interest.
Context
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 5.8% to 3.1% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 1.3% to 3.8% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 9.3% — a 7.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 11.1% to 3.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 6.2% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 5.9% to 41.3% — a 35.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 8.3% to 3.8% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 18.8% to 7.2% — a 11.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 14.1% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
The probability has barely budged over the life of the market. It has ranged from 1.1% to 45.9% and now sits at 2.3%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Otherwise, it settles to 'No.' The definition of 'State' includes the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision. Resolution relies on official US government sources, though a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered. The principal event that would resolve this market is an official announcement of charges by a federal authority. The resolution source is US governmental information, supported by credible reporting. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027; any news of an investigation or legal action before that date could prompt a reassessment.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. federal government formally charges or indicts Jerome Powell by the deadline. If no such charge occurs, it resolves to 'No.'
What counts as a federal charge?
A formal criminal indictment or announcement of charges from a U.S. federal government entity. The market resolution sources are official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if there is no charge by the deadline?
If there is no formal federal charge or indictment by Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to 'No.'
Does a state charge count?
State charges do not count unless they involve a subdivision of a State, which is included. The charge must be from the federal government, including the District of Columbia, counties, or municipalities.
When is the deadline?
The market deadline is Jan 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Any charge must occur before that time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice