Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 99.6% — a 37.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Inflation in US cooled slightly to 3.4% in July, according to latest data — The Guardian US
July Inflation US - Monthly: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July at 99.6%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in JulyEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $304.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | 99.6% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.4% in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.7% or more in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.5% in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.6% in July? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 76.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 58.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 53.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3% — CNBC Economy
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 46.5% to 61.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 46.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 61.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 66.0% to 57.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice