June CPI Market Resolves with Inflation Held in Check
With the release of the June 2026 CPI report, the market closed at 100.0% for the outcome that monthly inflation registered its faintest increase.
Updated · Volume $52.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? | 100.0% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in June? | 0.1% | — |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in June? | 0.1% | — |
The prevailing scenario, where inflation came in at the smallest possible monthly increase, proved correct, while all other outcome buckets remained unresolved as they fell far short of realization.
Context
Throughout the market’s life, the probability for the prevailing outcome moved before firmly settling at 100.0% at the close. Settlement relied on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release on Jul 15, 2026, which provided the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The market used the official headline figure, reported to a single decimal place, to determine the winning bracket. Had the June report been delayed, the market would have rolled to the next scheduled release and used the most recent available month’s data.
FAQ
Which scenario triumphed in the end?
The market settled on the outcome that June 2026 monthly CPI rose by the smallest amount. This scenario reached a probability of 100.0% at settlement.
What determined the final result?
Resolution came from the official BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report for June 2026, released on Jul 15, 2026, where the one-month seasonally adjusted change was the deciding figure.
To what precision was the change measured?
The market used the figure as reported by BLS to one decimal point, matching the official headline number.
What if the June report had not been published?
If the BLS had not released the June CPI on schedule, the market would have remained open until the next report’s release and then resolved using the most recent available month’s data.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice