Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 73.0% to 82.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO: Odds & Probability
Markets price Goldman Sachs at 83.5% to lead Anthropic's IPO, strongly favored. Resolves per the primary bank listed in the underwriting section of the final prospectus.
83.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
Updated · Volume $66.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 83.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 12.7% | -0.7 |
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank G or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank F or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank I or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank B or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank D or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank H or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank E or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank C or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bank A or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Goldman Sachs is the favored contender, while Morgan Stanley holds a substantial minority view and the other banks are collectively long shots.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 72.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 74.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 65.0% to 76.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 76.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 74.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 82.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently sits at 83.5%. It has traded in a range from 18.0% to 87.5% over the period. Over the past day, the probability moved 0.0 pts;
This market resolves to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering, as determined by official disclosures—primarily the final IPO prospectus. If the prospectus lists multiple lead underwriters, the first-named takes priority. Should no IPO occur by Dec 31, 2027, or if the offering proceeds without a designated lead, the market settles as “Other.” A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official disclosures are insufficient. The probability reflects expectations around the IPO's timing and the selection of underwriters. Formal announcements or credible reports naming a lead bank, as well as the filing of a registration statement, could prompt shifts. The ultimate resolution depends on the final prospectus and any official confirmation.
FAQ
What does this market track?
The identity of the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering.
How is the lead underwriter determined?
Based on official disclosures from Anthropic, primarily the underwriting section of the final IPO prospectus. If multiple banks are listed, the first-named is considered the primary lead.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after Anthropic's IPO prospectus is made public, or by the deadline if no offering takes place.
What happens if there is no designated lead underwriter?
The contract resolves to “Other.”
What sources are used for resolution?
Official Anthropic filings are the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting used if those are inconclusive.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice