NYSE circuit breaker before 2027: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 14.5% chance to a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, making it a unlikely event.
Updated · Volume $100.4K
A circuit breaker remains a unlikely outcome, with the overwhelming market weight on the no-halt scenario.
Context
It currently reads 14.5%, with a 0.0 pts move in the past day. The market settles as Yes only if a Level 1, 2, or 3 marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the NYSE between November 7, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026. Such halts occur when the S&P 500 Index falls by predetermined percentages from the prior close. If no halt occurs by the expiry, the contract resolves to No. The official NYSE notification or a consensus of credible reporting serves as the resolution source. The main formal driver is the time remaining until the Dec 31, 2026 deadline; without a halt, the contract trends toward zero. The only settlement trigger is an official circuit breaker, so the market’s price is sensitive to any trading session where the S&P 500 approaches the decline thresholds specified in NYSE rules.
FAQ
What triggers a marketwide circuit breaker on the NYSE?
A trading halt triggered automatically when the S&P 500 Index drops by thresholds (Levels 1, 2, and 3) set by the NYSE. The halt applies marketwide.
How is this prediction market resolved?
It resolves to Yes if any Level 1, 2, or 3 circuit breaker is declared between November 7, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it settles as No.
Who confirms whether a circuit breaker occurred?
The primary source is official information from the NYSE. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
What happens if a halt occurs but isn't due to an S&P 500 decline?
Only halts caused by S&P 500 declines count. Other trading halts (e.g., individual stock pauses) do not trigger a Yes resolution.
When is the contract's expiry?
The market resolves at the first occurrence of a qualifying halt, or at the end of December 31, 2026 if no halt happened.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice