Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 80.3% to 73.7% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO won't happen this year, says Sam Altman — CoinDesk
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027 at 73.0%.
73.0%-1.0 pts 24h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $281.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 73.0% | -1.0 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 13.0% | +1.0 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 6.7% | +1.2 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 5.3% | +0.4 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 2.8% | +0.2 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 1.0% | +0.1 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.8% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 80.3% to 78.8% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO won't happen this year, says Sam Altman — CoinDesk
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 68.8% to 79.5% — a 10.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 67.3% to 79.5% — a 12.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 60.0% to 62.4% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 56.2% to 62.9% — a 6.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 34.6% to 44.0% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $281.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027, is priced at 73.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice