Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 84.5% to 97.3% — a 12.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision on interest rates — NPR News
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $124.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 80.5% to 94.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 81.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 65.0% to 82.5% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice