Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting at 94.6%.
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $87.6K
Across platforms
0.6 pt spreadReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket94.6%
- Kalshi94.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? | 94.6% | +1.6 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? | 3.6% | -1.7 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting? | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $87.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting, is priced at 94.6%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice