Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting at 64.5%.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $96.9K
Across platforms
0.5 pt spreadReserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket64.5%
- Kalshi65.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | 64.5% | +8.0 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? | 30.5% | -8.0 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting? | 1.1% | +0.1 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $96.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 64.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice