What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December at 45.5%.

45.5%-6.5 pts 24h

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?

Updated · Volume $329.7K

38%58%77%96%Aug 13Aug 18Aug 22Aug 26Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in December?100.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?100.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?100.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?100.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in December?100.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December?70.5%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?62.0%-1.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December?61.0%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?45.5%-6.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?32.5%-3.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?15.9%+0.4
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?14.0%+0.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?10.5%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?8.5%+0.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?6.5%+0.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,000 (HIGH) in December?4.5%+0.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?4.5%0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $10,000 (HIGH) in December?3.5%+0.3
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?3.4%+0.4

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $329.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December, is priced at 45.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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