US economic state at the end of 2026?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026 at 44.5%.

44.5%-8.5 pts 24h

Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

Updated · Volume $35.8K

21%34%46%58%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?44.5%-8.5
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?33.5%+5.5
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?12.5%0.0
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?2.5%-0.3

The top 4 outcomes account for 93.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 4 tracked outcomes and $35.8K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026, is priced at 44.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice