Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 22.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026 amid AI safety fears, Sam Altman says — The Guardian
OpenAI 2026 Hardware Announcement Odds
Prediction markets price Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026 at 22.5%.
22.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Updated · Volume $427.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | 22.5% | -1.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | 16.0% | +0.5 |
| Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? | 4.3% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | 3.8% | -0.3 |
| Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? | 3.0% | -0.1 |
| Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? | 1.9% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 76.2% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026 amid AI safety fears, Sam Altman says — The Guardian
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 39.0% to 22.0% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 19.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 37.0% to 22.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 36.0% to 23.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 30.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 20.5% to 30.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 28.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 25.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $427.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026, is priced at 22.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice