Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 27.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
OpenAI 2026 Hardware Announcement Odds
Prediction markets price Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026 at 24.5%.
24.5%+8.0 pts 24h
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Updated · Volume $436.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | 24.5% | +8.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | 16.5% | -2.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | 16.5% | -1.5 |
| Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? | 5.1% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | 3.8% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? | 2.1% | +0.2 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 77.5% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 17.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 17.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 22.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026 amid AI safety fears, Sam Altman says — The Guardian
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026 amid AI safety fears, Sam Altman says — The Guardian
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $436.4K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026, is priced at 24.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice