DFM Real Estate Index 2026 Level: Odds
Markets price the DFM Real Estate Index reaching 12,000 in 2026 at 100.0%, making it the near-certain outcome. The probability has swung between 22.0% and 58.0% in recent weeks, tracking the index’s actual performance.
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?
Updated · Volume $108.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 12,000 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? | 27.5% | +3.5 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? | 6.7% | -2.6 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? | 4.5% | +0.2 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? | 3.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? | 3.4% | -0.1 |
The near-certain outcome of hitting 12,000 dominates the market, while the scenarios of a dip to 10,000 and a rise to 14,000 carry significant but lower probabilities; all other levels remain long shots.
Context
The market-implied chance of the index hitting 12,000 currently sits at 100.0%,. Over the period it has traded as high as 58.0% and as low as 22.0%. The market does not spell out resolution details in its description; it operates under the platform’s binary-outcome rules for index-level events. The benchmark is the DFM Real Estate Index, which tracks real estate firms listed on the Dubai Financial Market. What could move the number is straightforward: the index’s actual path through 2026. The market checks whether each level is breached by the end of the year, Jan 1, 2027. No interim deadlines or scheduled releases are specified in the market terms.
FAQ
What is the DFM Real Estate Index?
It is a stock index that measures the performance of real estate companies listed on the Dubai Financial Market.
When does the market resolve?
The market covers the full calendar year 2026, with settlement after Jan 1, 2027.
How is a “hit” defined for a level?
The exact definition is set out in the market’s rules—check the platform for details on whether a daily close or an intraday high qualifies.
Are other levels being tracked?
Yes, the market includes contracts for the index dipping to 10,000, rising to 14,000, and several more distant thresholds. The 12,000 level is the headline focus.
Where can I find official index data?
The DFM Real Estate Index is calculated and published by the Dubai Financial Market, accessible on their website and via financial data services.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice