What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 at 21.9%.
21.9%-1.1 pts 24h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | 21.9% | -1.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | 17.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? | 7.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? | 5.1% | +0.4 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | 4.3% | -0.4 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? | 4.3% | -0.4 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027? | 4.0% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? | 3.9% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027? | 3.9% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | 3.9% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? | 3.8% | — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? | 3.5% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? | 3.1% | -1.6 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | 2.9% | — |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | 2.9% | — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | 2.8% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 151.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $1.7M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027, is priced at 21.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice