What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 at 26.3%.

26.3%-0.2 pts 24h

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Updated · Volume $1.8M

5%17%30%42%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?100.0%0.0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?26.3%-0.2
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?12.7%-0.4
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?9.5%0.0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?4.7%+0.3
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?4.5%+0.1
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?4.5%+0.1
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?3.4%0.0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?3.3%+0.1
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?3.1%+0.1
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?2.7%+0.2
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?2.7%0.0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?2.6%+0.4
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?2.6%+0.1
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?2.6%0.0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?2.5%0.0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?2.3%-0.2
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?2.3%+0.1
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?2.1%+0.2
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?1.9%0.0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?1.4%0.0

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $1.8M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027, is priced at 26.3%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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