What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 at 26.3%.
26.3%-0.2 pts 24h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Updated · Volume $1.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | 26.3% | -0.2 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? | 12.7% | -0.4 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? | 4.7% | +0.3 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? | 3.3% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | 3.1% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? | 2.7% | +0.2 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | 2.7% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027? | 2.6% | +0.4 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027? | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | 2.3% | -0.2 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? | 2.1% | +0.2 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $1.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027, is priced at 26.3%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice