Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 63.5% to 100.0% — a 36.5-point move over the past day.
Will Warsh Mention 'Balance Sheet'? Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price the chance that Kevin Warsh will utter 'Balance Sheet' at his upcoming FOMC press conference on July 29, 2026, at 100.0%, making it near-certain.
45.5%
Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?
Updated · Volume $310.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Supply shock" during July Press Conference? | 63.5% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference? | 45.5% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference? | 22.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference? | 21.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh’s remarks not air? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference? | 0.0% | — |
While 'Balance Sheet' is near-certain, the other terms range from favored to coin-flip territory.
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 100.0% — a 66.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 51.5% to 100.0% — a 48.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 83.5% to 100.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 26.5% to 100.0% — a 73.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 83.5% to 100.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 82.5% to 100.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 100.0% — a 82.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 66.0% to 100.0% — a 34.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 100.0% — a 69.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently stands at 100.0%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Kevin Warsh says the listed term during his FOMC Introductory Statement or subsequent Q&A on July 29, 2026. Each bracket is a separate contract. If the press conference does not occur by July 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the '-No Qualifying Event-' bracket resolves to 'Yes' and all other terms resolve to 'No'. Resolution is based on official video and transcripts of the event, following the standard Polymarket Event Mentions contract rules. Shifts in probability will be driven by the press conference itself on Jul 29, 2026. Should the event be postponed or canceled before the cut-off, the contracts settle according to the 'No Qualifying Event' rule. Any pre-conference remarks or leaks could also move the market, but ultimate settlement depends solely on the official transcript and video.
FAQ
What happens if Kevin Warsh does not hold a press conference?
The '-No Qualifying Event-' bracket resolves to 'Yes', and all other brackets resolve to 'No'.
How is the press conference transcript sourced?
Resolution uses official video and transcripts of the FOMC press conference.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the press conference, once the official transcript is available, but no later than the stated deadline.
What counts as saying the term?
Any mention of the exact phrase during the Introductory Statement or Q&A, as per the Event Mentions contract rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice