Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 88.0% to 98.6% — a 10.6-point move over the past day.
US Government Stake in GlobalFoundries: Market Odds
Markets price the chance that the US federal government acquires equity in GlobalFoundries at 99.2%. That probability is near-certain.
43.0%+12.5 pts 24h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?
Updated · Volume $185.4K
Across platforms
54.0 pt spreadWill the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?
- Polymarket43.0%
- Kalshi97.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? | 99.2% | +1.9 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? | 96.6% | -0.5 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? | 96.1% | +0.6 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines? | 43.0% | +12.5 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation? | 22.5% | +8.5 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.? | 17.0% | -0.5 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? | 16.5% | +2.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited? | 15.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? | 14.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? | 14.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? | 10.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company? | 9.7% | +0.1 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in SpaceX? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC? | 9.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.? | 5.9% | -0.8 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.? | 4.4% | -0.3 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? | 3.6% | -0.1 |
Across the remaining companies, D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing are both near-certain, while Unusual Machines is close to a coin flip. Anduril and IonQ sit at a substantial minority view, and the others, from Lockheed Martin to Eli Lilly, are unlikely.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 86.3% to 98.9% — a 12.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 82.0% to 97.5% — a 15.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 83.0% to 96.5% — a 13.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 66.1% to 95.5% — a 29.3-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 83.0% to 94.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 83.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.8% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 80.3% to 78.9% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 78.8% to 81.3% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Traders are gauging whether the US government will directly own a piece of GlobalFoundries before the end of 2026. The contract pays out if Washington announces a completed qualifying deal or a binding agreement to acquire a stake. A qualifying acquisition covers direct equity, voting shares, or convertible rights treated as equity, including interests in a vehicle that primarily owns the chipmaker. Government-controlled sovereign funds count, but state-level purchases, pension investments, or non-equity instruments do not. A binding agreement, even if the actual transfer occurs later, is enough for a Yes resolution; mere speculation or non-binding plans are not. Official announcements and credible reporting serve as the resolution source. At 99.2%, the market views a Yes resolution as near-certain. This binary contract will settle at either 100 or 0, so the current price reflects the collective judgment of traders. Because the resolution window extends more than two years, traders have a long horizon to evaluate evolving policy signals.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if the US federal government announces a completed stake acquisition or a binding agreement to acquire one in GlobalFoundries by Dec 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Resolutions are based on official announcements and credible reporting.
What qualifies as a government stake?
A direct equity holding, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or an equivalent ownership interest. Acquisitions by federally controlled sovereign wealth funds count, but stakes taken by states, pensions, or private consortia do not. Non-equity instruments are excluded.
Why is the GlobalFoundries contract the headline?
It currently trades at 99.2%, making it near-certain. The market sees a federal stake in this semiconductor manufacturer as the most probable scenario among the tracked companies.
What other companies are covered?
Markets also track D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Unusual Machines, Anduril, IonQ, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, OpenAI, TSMC, Anthropic, and Eli Lilly. Their probabilities span a wide range, from favored to unlikely.
What happens if a binding agreement is announced?
An official announcement of a binding agreement, even before the actual stake transfer, qualifies for a Yes resolution. Once confirmed, the contract would move toward a settlement price of 100.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice