Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 93.7% to 96.0% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First? Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Anthropic will complete an IPO before OpenAI at 94.6%, making it strongly favored.
94.6%-1.4 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $384.6K
Anthropic's early IPO is the strong front-runner; the remaining scenarios—OpenAI reaching the public markets first, or the various 50-50 conditions applying—are seen as long shots.
Context
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 96.4% to 93.6% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OKX brings OpenAI and Anthropic bets to Europe as pre-IPO trading grows — CoinDesk
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI trails Anthropic as losses deepen and Altman pauses frontier AI training — CoinDesk
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment of Anthropic leading the IPO race currently sits at 94.6%. The market resolves to “Anthropic” if Anthropic completes an IPO on a recognized stock exchange before OpenAI does, and by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. It resolves to “OpenAI” if the reverse occurs. If neither company completes an IPO by the deadline, both IPO on the same calendar date, or both become ineligible (for example, through acquisition by an already-public entity), the market settles at 50-50. The resolution depends solely on formal IPO completion before Jan 1, 2028. Any official filing, public listing, or credible report that signals a concrete step toward an IPO for either company could shift the implied probabilities. The consensus of credible reporting serves as the final arbiter.
FAQ
What qualifies as an IPO for this market?
The first sale of stock by Anthropic or OpenAI to the public on any recognized stock exchange, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
What happens if neither company goes public by the deadline?
The market resolves 50-50 if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
What if both complete an IPO on the same day?
A same-day IPO by both companies also triggers a 50-50 resolution.
How is the outcome determined?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible news reporting, following official company announcements.
Does a direct listing or SPAC merger count as an IPO?
The market defines an IPO specifically as the first sale of stock to the public; alternative listing methods would need to meet that definition as confirmed by credible sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice