Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Will Argentina Dollarize by 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently price the chance that Argentina starts dollarization by the June 2026 deadline at 5.0%. Actual adoption or peg must have begun—not just been announced—since the market settles on concrete steps.
5.0%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $46.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? | 5.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome is unlikely, while the remaining scenarios are negligible.
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.2% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 11.8% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
The contract has fluctuated between 3.4% and 10.8% over its lifespan. Over the past day, the probability shifted by -0.1 pts, and over the past week,. For a 'Yes' resolution, Argentina must have actually begun pegging its currency to the US dollar or adopted the dollar as legal tender by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A peg need not be one-to-one. The market settles solely on whether these actions have started, not on announcements or future plans. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting on the commencement of dollarization. If no such action has begun by the deadline, the contract resolves to 'No'. Key factors that could shift the probability include approaching deadlines (this contract expires on Jan 1, 2027), any credible reports of concrete steps toward a currency peg or dollar adoption, and official economic policy changes that align with the resolution criteria. The absence of such developments or explicit government disavowal would likely push the odds lower.
FAQ
What does it mean for Argentina to dollarize?
Dollarization can mean adopting the US dollar as official legal tender or pegging the Argentine peso to the dollar. The peg does not have to be fixed at a 1:1 rate.
Why isn't an announcement enough to settle the market?
The market requires dollarization to have actually begun. A government pledge or legislative approval alone is not sufficient—physical or operational steps must be underway.
How will the market determine if dollarization has begun?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. News outlets and financial data services will confirm when concrete measures, like the launch of a peg or circulation of US dollars, have started.
Does the market require full dollarization by the deadline?
No. It resolves to 'Yes' if the process has begun by the deadline. Completion of the transition is not required.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice