Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 17.9% to 24.1% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Paramount's Warner Bros. Acquisition by 2026: Market Odds
Prediction markets give Paramount a 20.9% chance of closing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by the deadline.
20.9%-0.2 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $152.2K
The 'No' outcome dominates the market, while 'Yes' remains a meaningful but not favored minority view.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.3% to 17.7% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 22.9% to 18.8% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 18.1% to 27.2% — a 9.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Paramount CEO may remove operations from California over stalled merger — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 18.1% to 23.1% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 20.4% to 17.6% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 8.6% to 20.4% — a 11.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 24.9% to 5.1% — a 19.9-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Paramount chief executive David Ellison breaks silence on Warner Bros mega merger — BBC Business
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 23.1% to 13.8% — a 9.3-point move over the past day.
The probability has ranged from 16.5% to 29.6% since trading began. It currently stands at 20.9%, a level that prices the deal as a substantial minority view. A 'Yes' resolution requires Paramount—directly or via a subsidiary—to acquire control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by the deadline on Dec 31, 2026. Evidence comes first from official company communications and regulatory filings; if those prove inconclusive, a consensus of major reputable news outlets serves as the tiebreaker. The primary driver is the clock: the contract expires at the end of 2026 on Dec 31, 2026. Any official announcement or credible report about deal negotiations, antitrust reviews, or board votes would force a rapid repricing. Because resolution rests on verifiable public records, the market ignores rumor and reacts only to concrete developments.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to 'Yes'?
Paramount must finalize an acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's film and television studios as well as its streaming operations, either directly or through a subsidiary, before the contract's deadline.
How is the outcome determined if official statements are conflicting?
Resolution prioritizes company announcements and regulatory filings. In the absence of clarity, a consensus view from reputable news outlets is used to settle the market.
Does an announced deal that doesn't close by the deadline count?
No. The market only resolves to 'Yes' if the transaction is completed before the deadline. Announcements without closing do not trigger a 'Yes'.
What happens if the companies merge but not all entities are included?
The market requires acquisition of control over both the studios and streaming businesses. Partial deals or asset sales that fall short of that threshold would not qualify.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice