Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 55.5% to 9.5% — a 46.0-point move over the past day.
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Traders price the chance of Stripe acquiring any part of PayPal in 2026 at 9.5%, a unlikely as of 11 min ago.
9.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $83.0K
The headline Yes outcome is the only actively traded side; the No is implied, making this effectively a binary market.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 55.5% to 30.0% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 55.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 58.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 66.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 66.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 52.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 52.0% to 61.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 52.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 64.0% to 42.5% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Stripe’s $53 billion PayPal bid is a high-stakes play to own the future of digital payments — CoinDesk
The contract has traded in a range from 6.0% to 73.0%, with the latest quote at 9.5%, a shift of +0.5 pts over the past day. The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement, made by Jan 1, 2027, confirms that Stripe is acquiring or has acquired a material portion of PayPal—a subsidiary, business unit, equity interest, or the whole company. A full merger also qualifies. Routine partnerships do not trigger a Yes. The announcement itself, not the completion of any deal, is the deciding event. The primary source is official information from PayPal and Stripe; a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The number moves on any sign that an announcement is imminent. Formal conditions that matter include the deadline Jan 1, 2027, which marks the cutoff for a qualifying announcement. The resolution relies on official statements, so corporate filings, press releases, or earnings calls from either company are closely watched. Since the rule accepts credible reporting as a secondary source, a widely reported leak could also shift expectations.
FAQ
What exactly qualifies as an acquisition?
Any official announcement that Stripe will acquire a material part of PayPal—such as a subsidiary, business unit, or equity stake—or the entire company. A merger also qualifies. Simple partnerships or commercial agreements do not.
Does the deal actually have to close?
No. The market resolves to Yes based on the announcement itself, even if the transaction later falls through.
What if the announcement is leaked but not confirmed?
If a consensus of credible reporting emerges, that can serve as the resolution source. Official confirmation from the companies remains the primary source.
What is the deadline for an announcement?
The eligibility window closes Jan 1, 2027, after which no new announcement can trigger a Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice