Tesla Robovan Pre-2027 Order Open Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance Tesla opens orders for the Robovan before 2027 at 9.5%, an unlikely outcome. For resolution, the preordering or ordering window must actually open by December 31, 2026.
Updated · Volume $32.1K
The 'Yes' outcome is an unlikely prospect; the 'No' side captures the lion's share of the probability.
Context
The probability currently sits at 9.5%, having fluctuated between 8.0% and 14.0% since launch. It moved 0.0 pts over the last day;. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The vehicle must be a distinct product line, not a modified version of another model such as a Robotaxi with extra seats. Free signups, waitlists, or mere announcements of future ordering windows do not suffice—the ordering or preordering process must actually commence within the timeframe. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027; the probability will move as the date approaches and as Tesla provides updates on its vehicle pipeline. The final settlement hinges on whether Tesla opens orders by that date, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What counts as Tesla opening orders?
Tesla must make either preorders or full customer orders publicly available for a qualifying vehicle. Free signups, waitlists, or announcements of future ordering windows do not meet the requirement.
Does the vehicle have to be called the Robovan?
No. Any van-like autonomous electric vehicle qualifies, provided it is a distinct product line—not just a modified version of another Tesla model such as a Robotaxi.
What is the deadline for orders to open?
Orders must open by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The opening must actually occur by then; a mere announcement is not enough.
How is the outcome verified?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting that confirms whether Tesla opened orders within the required timeframe.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice