Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 100.0% — a 98.1-point move over the past day.
Zero Ships Transit Hormuz by July 31? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 100.0% chance—near-certain—that no ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz on at least one day between June 26 and Sep 30, 2026, as recorded by IMF PortWatch.
40.0%-11.5 pts 24h
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
Updated · Volume $839.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? | 40.0% | -11.5 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | 20.5% | -5.5 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The near-certain chance of a zero-transit day by Sep 30, 2026 dominates attention; all later dates are priced as tail risks.
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 87.2% — a 85.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 3.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 10.5% to 4.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 8.5% — a 41.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 6.7% to 3.9% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 9.3% to 4.0% — a 5.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 4.3% to 7.3% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 9.6% — a 16.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 26.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The price has settled at 100.0%, after trading in a range from 27.0% to 58.0%. The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch's daily “Arrivals of Ships” data for the Strait of Hormuz shows exactly zero transit calls on any date from June 26 to Sep 30, 2026. The count includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. A single zero reading triggers an immediate Yes. If the entire window passes with no zero day, it settles at No. Should the IMF fail to publish complete data within 28 calendar days of Sep 30, 2026, the market resolves based on whatever figures have been released by then. Obvious clerical errors in the data may prompt a brief delay for corrections. The probability responds to the shrinking calendar: as Sep 30, 2026 nears, the number of remaining days in which a zero could occur diminishes. The market hinges exclusively on IMF PortWatch; reports from other sources do not directly affect the outcome. Revisions to earlier days' counts are factored in as long as they appear within the resolution window and are not flagged as errors.
FAQ
What counts as a transit call?
IMF PortWatch reports arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Only these vessel types are considered.
Does the market resolve as soon as a zero day appears?
Yes, it resolves immediately to Yes if the IMF publishes a daily count of zero for any date within the window.
What happens if the IMF corrects a data point after publishing?
Corrections made within the market's timeframe are taken into account, unless the original figure was a clerical error, in which case the market may wait for the corrected data.
What if the IMF does not publish data for part of the period?
If complete data are not available within 28 days of the end date, the market resolves based on whatever has been published by that cutoff.
Is this market about ships observed in the strait or about the IMF's published data?
It is strictly about the IMF PortWatch dataset; the actual number of ships is irrelevant if it isn't captured in that official record.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice