Iran leader end of 2026: Odds & probability

This market resolves to the individual who actually holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran at the specified time. That means formal titles and international recognition do not matter—what counts is who controls the armed forces, state institutions, and executive decision-making. If no one meets that bar, the market resolves to “No Head of State”. The end date is 31 December 2026, and the market is active with considerable volume. A 76.6% probability for Mojtaba Khamenei suggests a strong expectation that he will be the de facto head of state. However, the distribution reveals more than a simple succession story. The next highest probability belongs not to a rival personality but to the scenario of no head of state at all, at 7.8%. That residual of roughly one-in-thirteen odds points to a tail risk of institutional breakdown or contested authority. Beyond that, Reza Pahlavi draws 4.5%. No other candidate exceeds 3.1%, and most cling to probabilities below 1%. Another way to read the market: 23.4% of the probability sits outside the Mojtaba Khamenei contract. That slice fragments across over two dozen names. The scattering implies that while markets see continuity as the base case, they also price in a non-negligible chance that the leadership situation at that time could be messy or produce surprise outcomes. The volume figure of $26.9 million indicates substantial interest, but the market’s shape is not a confident bet on a single path; it is a bet on a system where the institutional process is opaque and a few pivotal decision-makers can steer history.