Mojtaba Khamenei Iran Head of State Odds

Mojtaba Khamenei's probability stands at 82.8% as of 6 min ago. It has traded as low as 74.8% and as high as 85.3% over the market's lifespan. in the last day, by +1.2 pts. This market resolves based on the situation on Dec 31, 2026. It will settle on the individual who de facto holds the powers of Iran's head of state—meaning primary control over armed forces, state institutions, and executive decision-making—regardless of formal title or international recognition. If competing claims arise, the market looks to demonstrable control over territory and core infrastructure. If no one exercises such control, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting at that time. The probability will react to events that alter the perceived likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei achieving de facto authority by the deadline Dec 31, 2026. Any shifts in Iran's political stability, news about the current leadership's health, or changes in factional dynamics could move the price, as could assessments by the credible reporting sources that will determine the final outcome. No formal appointments or foreign recognitions are relevant.