Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.9% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Will China Invade Taiwan by End of 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by end-2026 at 2.1%. Resolution will hinge on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member—or, absent that, a consensus of credible reporting.
2.1%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $44.2M
With the invasion scenario rated a long shot, the market overwhelmingly expects no military offensive—and thus a 'No' resolution—by the end of 2026.
Context
The probability has stayed in remote territory, including 0.0 pts in the last day. This market resolves to 'Yes' if China commences a military offensive intended to seize control of any part of the Republic of China (Taiwan)—inhabited islands included, uninhabited ones excluded—by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is an announcement from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member. If no such announcement materializes, a consensus of credible reporting will settle it. The formal deadline is Jan 1, 2027. The price may move on concrete developments that alter the perceived odds of an invasion before then: official statements, troop movements, or diplomatic breaks that feed into the resolution criteria. Since the market resolves only on documented confirmation or credible reporting, anything that makes such a trigger more or less likely could shift the number.
FAQ
What qualifies as an invasion under this market?
A military offensive by China intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan—including inhabited islands but excluding uninhabited ones.
How is the outcome decided?
By official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member. If no official announcement emerges, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
What is the deadline for the event?
The offensive must commence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
What happens if there is no invasion by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice