Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control: Odds & Probability

Kharg Island, a speck of land in the northern Persian Gulf, handles more than 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Any shift in control of the terminal would rattle energy markets and redraw strategic calculations from Washington to Beijing. The prediction market asks a simple question: will Iran no longer exercise primary governmental or military control over the island by March 31, 2026? The resolution criteria are stringent. Temporary raids, isolated landings, offshore naval presence, or saboteurs hitting pipelines do not count. The market demands that another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established actual control. A negotiated transfer qualifies only once boots are on the ground and the previous administration is no longer calling the shots. If the situation remains contested or unclear at the deadline, the market resolves to “No”. Total volume in the market has reached roughly $63m, a sum that suggests plenty of serious money is watching the outcome. What stands out in the probability curve is the timing. Markets assign zero chance to a change in control before late July. That includes specific dates in April, May, and June—all at 0.0%. The first flicker of probability appears in late July at 2.3%, then ticks up to 6.2% by the end of August. One reading is that traders see no imminent catalyst but assign a small, rising tail risk to the late summer. The probabilities for subsequent months—including the final March 2026 deadline—are not priced higher, which could mean the market views any successful operation as likely to happen in a narrow window or that the longer-dated contracts are less liquid. The gap between near-zero and 6.2% is not enormous, but it is telling: a handful of participants are willing to bet that something changes before the end of August, even if most see the island remaining firmly in Iranian hands through the spring and early summer.