Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 12.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 8.5% probability that Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by August 31, an event they consider unlikely. The market's resolution depends on primary governmental or military control changing hands, with temporary disruptions explicitly excluded.
8.5%+3.0 pts 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Updated · Volume $72.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | 8.5% | +3.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 2.5% | +0.6 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Markets view the possibility of Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by August 31 as unlikely; the other seven outcomes carry negligible odds.
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 6.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
The likelihood markets assign to this scenario now sits at 8.5%, having traded between 5.5% and 15.5% over the observation period. The contract resolves to “Yes” if Iran has lost primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by the deadline of Jan 1, 2027, and a new authority—another state, occupying force, or internationally backed entity—has established actual control. Isolated raids, special forces operations, naval presence, or bombardment do not count on their own; nor do claims or announcements without physical control. A negotiated handover qualifies only after control is physically transferred. When the situation is contested or unclear, the market settles as “No.”
Formal resolution rests on the date Jan 1, 2027, with the primary source being official statements from involved governments and militaries alongside consensus credible reporting. Any development meeting the strict control standard could shift the implied probability, but the threshold remains high.
FAQ
What does “no longer under Iranian control” mean?
It means Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has taken over.
Do temporary raids or special operations count?
No. The rules explicitly exclude temporary raids, isolated landings, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or other transient disruptions. Only sustained, established control qualifies.
What if control is transferred through a peace deal or ceasefire?
A negotiated settlement qualifies only once actual control has been established on the island, not at the moment a deal is signed or announced.
How does the market resolve if control is disputed or unclear?
The market resolves to “No.” If control is contested, ambiguous, or insufficiently confirmed by the deadline, the outcome is a “No” resolution.
What sources decide the final outcome?
The primary sources are official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, together with a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice