Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 15.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give 15.5% odds that the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, with the market set to resolve at Jan 1, 2027.
15.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $63.3M
The market heavily favours no invasion, while the 'Yes' outcome remains unlikely.
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 23.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The market has moved in a range from 11.5% to 26.5%, with the most recent price at 15.5%, +2.0 pts over the last day. Trading volume stands at $63.3M. To settle 'Yes', the U.S. must begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026. The territorial baseline is land de facto controlled by either country as of November 4, 2025. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting. The primary trigger is the arrival of the resolution deadline Jan 1, 2027, after which the market settles if no invasion occurs. In the interim, any verified reports of troop movements or official declarations could shift the odds. Because the outcome depends on a consensus of sources, isolated claims are unlikely to move the market.
FAQ
What constitutes an invasion under this market's rules?
A U.S. military offensive aimed at taking and holding any Iranian territory.
When does the market resolve?
By 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, or earlier if an invasion is confirmed.
How is sovereignty defined for resolution purposes?
Land de facto controlled by Iran or the U.S. on November 4, 2025, is the baseline. Any change after that date counts.
What counts as a credible source?
The market uses a consensus of credible reporting, meaning multiple reliable news outlets must confirm the event.
Would a limited airstrike trigger a 'Yes'?
No, the offensive must be intended to control territory, not just a single strike.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice