Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 4.2% to 0.7% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Iran loses control of Abu Musa Island by August 31 at 0.9%, an effectively ruled out scenario. The contract has traded between 0.5% and 51.5% over its lifetime.
0.9%-2.0 pts 24h
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Updated · Volume $97.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 0.9% | -2.0 |
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market views a change of control as the effectively ruled out scenario, while the remaining possibilities are all long shots.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 4.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 0.5% to 4.3% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 4.1% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 10.0% to 3.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 3.1% — a 47.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.1% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 2.6% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 6.4% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability that Abu Musa Island changes hands by the deadline stands at 0.9%, having ranged from 0.5% to 51.5%. This market resolves based on whether Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over the island by August 31, 11:59 PM ET. A change of control requires another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority to establish actual control on the island. Temporary raids, sabotage, or naval presence alone do not qualify. If control changes through negotiation, it counts only once actual control is established on the ground. When control is contested or unclear by the resolution date, the market resolves to "No". The key resolution date is Oct 1, 2026, after which the market will settle. The primary sources for verification are official government and military statements, along with a consensus of credible reporting. Any formal announcement or event that suggests a material change in the control status of the island could move the odds.
FAQ
What does "no longer under Iranian control" mean?
It means Iran ceases to exercise primary governmental or military control, and another state or internationally backed authority establishes actual control on the island.
What events do not qualify as a change of control?
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption do not count. An announcement or claim without actual control also does not qualify.
What happens if control is disputed at the resolution date?
If control is contested, unclear, or not sufficiently established, the market resolves to "No".
How is the outcome determined?
The resolution relies on official statements from relevant governments and militaries, plus a consensus of credible reporting.
When does the market settle?
The market resolves after the specified deadline, Oct 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, based on conditions at that time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice