Ahmed al-Sharaa out as Syria leader: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Ahmed al-Sharaa leaves power in Syria by Dec 31, 2026 at 9.0%, which traders consider unlikely.
Updated · Volume $70.6K
This is a binary market; the headline outcome captures the probability of al-Sharaa's departure.
Context
Trajectory: The probability has hovered around 9.0%, with a +3.5 pts move in the past day. Overall, the market signals little expectation of imminent change. Resolution and rules: The market resolves to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period before Dec 31, 2026. This includes official resignation, removal, detention, or being otherwise permanently prevented from performing duties. An announced resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to “Yes,” regardless of when it takes effect. The outcome is determined by official information from al-Sharaa or the Syrian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. What would move the number: Any formal development that meets the resolution criteria—such as an announcement of resignation, a coup, or evidence of incapacitation—would likely shift the price. No scheduled events or deadlines are built into the contract beyond the Dec 31, 2026 expiry.
FAQ
How is the market resolved?
It resolves to 'Yes' if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria at any point before the expiry date, even temporarily. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
What events trigger a 'Yes'?
An announced resignation or removal, detention, or being permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties all qualify. A 'Yes' resolution is immediate upon such an announcement, regardless of when it takes effect.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Syrian government, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
Does the market close before the deadline?
Yes, if a qualifying event occurs. The market will resolve to 'Yes' as soon as the event is confirmed, even if the effective date is later.
What happens if al-Sharaa leaves office and returns?
The market resolves to 'Yes' as soon as he first ceases to be President, regardless of any subsequent return to power.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice