Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31 at 67.1%.

67.1%+2.7 pts 24h

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Updated · Volume $146.7K

0%28%57%85%Jun 26Jul 1Jul 5Jul 10Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?67.1%+2.7
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?22.5%-3.5
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?4.5%-1.5
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?1.3%-0.1
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?0.4%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 95.8% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $146.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, is priced at 67.1%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice