Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Strait of Hormuz Transit Average: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31 at 99.6%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $313.0K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | 99.6% | — |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 96.1% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 78.9% to 82.3% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 70.6% to 80.8% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice