Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban): Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027 at 97.7%.
97.7%-0.8 pts 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Updated · Volume $65.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | 97.7% | -0.8 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.1% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $65.3M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027, is priced at 97.7%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice