Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 80.0% to 87.9% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco PM by 2026: Odds & Probability
As of 3 min ago, the probability that Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be Morocco's Prime Minister before 2027 stands at 83.4%, a level that makes his departure strongly favored.
83.4%-0.7 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $168.0K
The market considers Akhannouch's departure strongly favored; all other possibilities are remote.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 91.5% to 80.2% — a 11.3-point move over the past day.
The probability that Aziz Akhannouch leaves office has stayed strongly favored since the market opened. Over the past day, the odds shifted by -0.7 pts points. Prices have traded between 80.0% and 93.8% during this period. The market settles to 'Yes' if Akhannouch ceases to be Prime Minister for any amount of time between the market's creation and the end date (Dec 31, 2026). An announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate 'Yes' resolution, regardless of when the change takes effect. Detention, effective removal, or permanent inability to fulfill the role also qualify. The outcome is determined by official statements from Akhannouch or the Moroccan government, or a consensus of credible reporting if official sources are insufficient. Key moving factors include the countdown to the deadline of Dec 31, 2026 and any concrete events that could prompt Akhannouch's exit—a resignation, a no-confidence vote, or a legal detention that meets the market's criteria. The resolution source serves as the ultimate trigger; when it confirms a qualifying event, the probability will adjust sharply.
FAQ
How does the market define Akhannouch "ceasing to be Prime Minister"?
Any period where he is not serving as Prime Minister, including resignation, removal, detention, or permanent inability to fulfill the duties.
What happens if his resignation is announced before the end date but takes effect later?
The market resolves to "Yes" immediately upon the announcement, regardless of the effective date.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
Official information from Aziz Akhannouch and the Moroccan government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Does a temporary absence count as ceasing to be PM?
Yes—the market requires only that he stops being Prime Minister for any period, no matter how brief.
What if he is detained but not formally removed?
Detention that effectively prevents him from fulfilling his duties qualifies as a "Yes" resolution under the rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice