Bab el-Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed: Odds & Probability

Markets are focused on a single data series: the IMF’s PortWatch ‘Arrivals of Ships’ for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The critical threshold is a 7-day moving average of 10 transit calls; anything at or below that would be deemed an effective closure. As of the most recent data refresh 9 min ago, the probability of hitting that mark by year‑end stands at 17.5%, a level that puts the scenario in the unlikely range. Resolution is triggered the instant PortWatch publishes a qualifying figure. If the entire observation window passes without reaching the threshold, it settles to No. The listed end date (Jan 1, 2027) marks the final day of eligibility. Because PortWatch sometimes revises earlier readings, a 14-day grace period follows that date. Revisions to pre‑end‑date data are considered only if they are published before the end‑date data appear; once the end‑date numbers are out, earlier revisions are locked out. Traders therefore face a binary event where the outcome hinges entirely on the path of daily ship‑arrival data. The market’s design makes it a direct, automated bet on whether traffic through one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints dwindles to crisis levels.