Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 73.6% to 92.3% — a 18.8-point move over the past day.
Best Chinese AI Company end of July? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $1.0M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company J have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company L have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company A have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company C have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company E have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company D have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will any other company have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company M have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company H have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company B have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company K have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company G have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company F have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company I have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 85.8% to 72.7% — a 13.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 84.1% to 75.8% — a 8.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 73.6% to 82.6% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 85.0% to 75.8% — a 9.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 79.9% to 83.4% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 78.8% to 81.0% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 68.8% to 79.0% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 73.8% to 57.8% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 60.6% to 78.2% — a 17.6-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice