Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.3% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
China Coup Attempt Before 2027: Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets assign a 5.6% probability to a coup attempt in China before 2027, a figure that reflects a consensus view that such an event is unlikely. The market considers only attempts by state actors between November 2025 and December 2026.
5.6%+0.3 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $159.1K
Markets view a coup attempt as unlikely, meaning the consensus expectation is that no such event will occur by the deadline.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 6.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The market’s probability has stayed firmly in low single digits throughout its existence. Over the past day it has moved +0.3 pts. Even the widest swings have not altered the overall picture that a coup attempt is a long shot. Resolution rests on whether a coup attempt—as strictly defined—occurs and is widely reported within the observation window. That window runs from November 11, 2025 to Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count, the attempt must involve military, security forces, or other state-actor factions acting in a coordinated and deliberate way to overthrow or seize the Chinese government. Non-state uprisings, isolated protests, and general unrest are excluded. If the Chinese government claims it foiled a plot, that claim only counts toward a “Yes” if independent, credible sources widely report it and explicitly characterize it as a coup attempt. The resolution relies on a consensus of such reporting. What would jolt the probability higher is straightforward: a report from multiple credible outlets describing an event that fits all criteria. With no scheduled triggers or announcements, the number responds purely to news flow. The market closes at Jan 1, 2027; until then, any verifiable coup attempt would prompt a sharp repricing. For now, the absence of such signals keeps the probability at the floor of its range.
FAQ
What exactly constitutes a coup attempt for this market?
A coup attempt must be a coordinated, deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or seize the Chinese government. Non-state actions, protests, and unrest do not qualify.
Do foiled plots that are prevented before any action count?
No. Foiled plots or arrests without an attempted execution do not qualify. Even if the Chinese government claims it disrupted a planned operation, it counts only if independent, credible sources widely report and explicitly characterize it as a coup attempt.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to “Yes” if, during the window from November 11, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a coup attempt meeting the definition is widely reported by credible sources. Otherwise it resolves to “No.”
What counts as a credible independent source?
The market relies on a consensus of reporting from sources that are widely regarded as credible and independent, such as major international news organizations. Official Chinese government statements alone are insufficient unless backed by such independent reporting.
When does the market close?
The market closes on Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, unless a qualifying coup attempt is confirmed earlier.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice