Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Cilia Flores Release: Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026 at 14.5%.
14.5%-4.5 pts 24h
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | -4.5 |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 21.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 30.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 8.0% to 48.5% — a 40.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 7.5% to 19.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 31.0% to 21.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 30.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 42.0% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $1.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026, is priced at 14.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice