Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 15.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Delcy Rodríguez Out as Venezuela Leader: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Delcy Rodríguez leaves her post by year-end 2026 at 11.0%, a level they view as unlikely. The market resolves if she exits the role for any period, even temporarily, as confirmed by official sources or credible reporting.
11.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $655.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | 11.0% | +0.5 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Almost all trading is concentrated on the contract that Rodríguez leaves office by the deadline; the remaining outcomes are long shots with negligible volume.
Context
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 21.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The probability that Delcy Rodríguez is out as Venezuela’s leader by the end of 2026 currently stands at 11.0%, which markets consider unlikely. In the latest day of trading, the figure shifted by +0.5 pts, Total volume for this market sits at $655.6K. The contract settles to “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be Acting President or leader of Venezuela for any length of time between the market’s creation and Jan 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before that date triggers immediate settlement to “Yes,” even if the actual departure occurs later. A “Yes” also covers cases of detention, effective removal, or a permanent inability to perform the role. Resolution is determined by official information from Rodríguez and the Venezuelan government, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be decisive. The formal triggers are an official statement—or a body of credible reports—confirming her exit, or the arrival of the end date Jan 1, 2027 with no such event. The rules draw no distinction between voluntary and forced departure; any confirmed removal, regardless of duration, is enough.
FAQ
What triggers a “Yes” in this market?
Any period of removal, detention, or permanent prevention from performing the duties of the role qualifies, as confirmed by official sources or credible reporting.
What happens if Rodríguez resigns but the resignation takes effect after the end date?
The announcement of resignation before the end date is sufficient for an immediate “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the resignation becomes effective.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
Official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the Venezuelan government, or a consensus of credible reporting if official information is unavailable or disputed.
Does a temporary absence count?
Yes, any period of time, even a brief removal, qualifies as a “Yes.”
What if the situation is unclear or disputed?
The market can settle based on a consensus of credible reporting when official information is lacking or contradictory.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice