Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 16.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Edi Rama Out as Albania PM in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood that Edi Rama ceases to be the Prime Minister of Albania at 6.5%. A resignation or removal announcement before the deadline would settle the contract in favor of a “Yes” outcome.
6.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $141.9K
The headline outcome — Rama leaving office — is priced at unlikely; the complement, his continuing as prime minister through the deadline, accounts for the rest of the probability.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 23.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has moved from a low of 6.5% to a high of 15.0% since the market opened. It now stands at 6.5%, with a 0.0 pts change over the past day. Data updated 15 min ago. To settle at “Yes,” Edi Rama must cease being prime minister for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that time resolves the market immediately, irrespective of when the exit actually occurs. The outcome is determined by official information from Mr. Rama and the Albanian government or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting. The market’s price is sensitive to official statements from Edi Rama or the Albanian government, credible reporting on his status, or any announcement of resignation or removal. The date by which any such event must occur is Jan 1, 2027. The contract settles based on whether he departed office at any point before then.
FAQ
What does it mean if the market resolves to “Yes”?
It means Edi Rama ceased to be the Prime Minister of Albania for any period between the market’s creation and the end of 2026.
Does an announced resignation count before it takes effect?
Yes. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline immediately resolves the market to “Yes,” even if the actual departure is scheduled for later.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official information from Mr. Rama and the Albanian government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
When does the market stop trading?
Trading ceases at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, or earlier if the market resolves based on an announcement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice