Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? — Current Odds & Probability
Markets see a 4.5% chance that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leaves the Turkish presidency before 2027. The contract resolves on any departure, including resignation or removal.
Updated · Volume $639.0K
The market prices Erdoğan’s exit as a long shot, meaning the status quo of continuity is the dominant expectation.
Context
The market-implied probability of Erdoğan’s early departure currently stands at 4.5%. In the last day, the contract moved 0.0 pts. The contract settles as “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is no longer President at any point, even temporarily, before the closing date. An official announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution, regardless of when the change takes effect. The market also considers detainment or any circumstances that permanently prevent him from fulfilling his duties as a qualifying event. Settlement relies on official statements from Erdoğan or the Turkish government, though a consensus of credible reporting may substitute if necessary. The market runs through Jan 1, 2027, meaning any political crisis or succession move before that deadline could shift the price. The resolution source—official confirmation or credible consensus—means that rumors alone may not settle the contract, but significant leaks or reports could influence traders.
FAQ
What counts as Erdoğan being “out”?
The market resolves “Yes” if he ceases to be President for any period of time, whether through resignation, removal, detainment, or permanent incapacity. A temporary absence also qualifies.
How quickly does the market resolve after an announcement?
As soon as an official resignation or removal is announced, the market resolves to “Yes” immediately, even if the actual departure date is later.
What sources are used to decide the outcome?
Primary sources are official information from Erdoğan or the Turkish government. If such confirmation is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does the market require him to be out for a certain duration?
No, any period of time without presidential authority triggers a “Yes” resolution. A fleeting or brief removal is sufficient.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice