Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Raúl Castro in US Custody: Odds & Probability
The headline outcome—that Raúl Castro is taken into U.S. government custody—is viewed as a long shot, priced at 4.0% as of 5 min ago.
4.0%0.0 pts 24h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Updated · Volume $824.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—Raúl Castro entering U.S. custody—dominates attention with a long shot odds; the remaining two scenarios are long shots.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 4.0%. The market settles to 'Yes' if Raúl Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by Jan 1, 2027. Custody is defined as physical detainment, arrest, capture, or assumption of physical custodial control by U.S. personnel—including military, CIA, other agencies, or contractors under direct U.S. authority. A voluntary surrender also qualifies. Actions by non-U.S. forces do not count unless U.S. personnel are present and assume control, or a later transfer to U.S. custody occurs. Meetings, voluntary interactions, or presence in U.S. spaces without detention are excluded. Resolution relies on official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting. A resolution is triggered if, by Jan 1, 2027, U.S. personnel physically take Raúl Castro into custody as defined. The market will settle based on official U.S. government statements and a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What counts as U.S. government custody?
Physical detainment, arrest, capture, or custodial control by U.S. military, CIA, other agency personnel, or contractors operating under direct U.S. authority.
Does a voluntary surrender meet the criteria?
Yes, if Raúl Castro voluntarily submits to U.S. personnel and they assume physical custodial control, that qualifies.
What if non-U.S. forces detain him?
That does not trigger a 'Yes' unless U.S. personnel are physically present and assume custody, or Raúl Castro is later transferred into U.S. custody.
What types of interactions are excluded?
Voluntary visits, meetings, or his presence in U.S. spaces without detention do not count. Only forceful or custodial control matters.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the deadline or earlier if the condition is met, based on official U.S. government information and credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice