Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 47.5% to 1.6% — a 45.9-point move over the past day.
Farsi Island Control Odds: Will It Change by August 31?
Markets assess the chance that Farsi Island will no longer be under Iranian control by the end of August at 0.9% — a effectively ruled out outcome.
0.9%0.0 pts 24h
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Updated · Volume $197.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market strongly favors the island staying under Iran's control, with the chance of a change by August 31 priced at 0.9% — a effectively ruled out outcome.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 26.0% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 42.0% — a 26.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 5.7% to 3.5% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
The probability has lingered at a low level within a 0.9% to 51.5% range, now at 0.9%. It moved 0.0 pts over the past day. Total market volume is $197.8K. The contract resolves to 'Yes' only if Iran ceases to exercise primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority establishes actual control by the deadline. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, or a naval presence offshore are not sufficient on their own. Announcements or claims of lost control are disregarded unless actual control is established. If control is transferred via negotiation, it counts once genuinely established. The primary resolution source is official statements from relevant governments and militaries, combined with a consensus of credible reporting. The probability could shift materially in the run-up to the resolution date Oct 1, 2026, if credible reports emerge that another power is establishing physical control over the island. Since the resolution depends on actual control rather than statements, market pricing will react to concrete developments on the ground and to the assessment of official sources and credible journalism.
FAQ
What does "no longer under the control of Iran" mean exactly?
It means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control on the island. Temporary actions like raids or bombardment do not qualify.
How is control verified?
The primary resolution source is official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting. If control is contested or unclear, the market resolves to "No".
Can a threat or announcement trigger a Yes?
No. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control does not qualify without actual control being established by another party.
What if control changes due to a treaty?
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, it will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
Is there a deadline for this event?
Yes, the market resolves based on whether control changes by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice