Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Market Odds on Normalisation
Markets assign a 0.0% probability to Strait of Hormuz traffic normalising by Jul 31, 2026—a scenario that is effectively ruled out. The threshold for resolution is a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls published by IMF Portwatch.
Updated · Volume $24.3M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
The ‘Yes’ outcome is effectively ruled out, reflecting a market that sees almost no chance of a return to the 60-call benchmark by the deadline.
Context
The implied probability of normalisation has moved between since the market launched. It currently sits at 0.0%, (data as of 50 min ago ago). The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if, on any date between creation and Jul 31, 2026, IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or more. Daily calls encompass container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. The market will settle early if the condition is met; otherwise it closes once data for Jul 31, 2026 is published. Revisions to data within the timeframe are taken into account, but later revisions after the period ends are ignored. The resolution deadline is Jul 31, 2026. A sustained rebound in shipping activity that pushes the moving average above the 60-call threshold would flip the outcome. The sole arbiter is IMF Portwatch; trader attention therefore focuses on that source’s daily releases and any subsequent corrections that might alter the average before the cut-off.
FAQ
What determines a ‘Yes’ outcome?
The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if IMF Portwatch’s published 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equals or exceeds 60 on any date from market creation through Jul 31, 2026.
Which vessels count toward the transit call figure?
The tally includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Other ship types, or those not reported by IMF Portwatch, are excluded.
How are data revisions handled?
Revisions published before the final data for Jul 31, 2026 are taken into account and can trigger a ‘Yes’ resolution even if the original figure was below 60. Revisions after that point are not considered.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves as soon as the 60-call threshold is reached, or after the final data for Jul 31, 2026 becomes available, whichever occurs first.
What is the resolution source?
IMF Portwatch, specifically its transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz, accessible at the project’s website.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice