Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 59.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes — Al Jazeera
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting: Odds & Probability
Markets are pricing a 59.5% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its target federal funds rate by the conclusion of its October 2026 meeting, making a hike close to a coin flip over the period. This market opens for resolution from December 16, 2025.
59.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Updated · Volume $2.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | 59.5% | +1.0 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | 53.5% | +9.0 |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The October meeting—the headline contract—is favored, and probabilities decline for earlier meetings. A hike by September is close to a coin flip at 53.5%, while a July hike is effectively ruled out at 0.0%.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 55.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 41.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 58.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 59.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 72.5% to 60.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US Fed holds interest rates steady citing ‘elevated’ inflation — Al Jazeera
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 73.5% to 62.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US Fed holds interest rates steady citing ‘elevated’ inflation — Al Jazeera
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 73.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 55.0% to 70.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
This contract tracks whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for October 2026. Any rate hike announced as a result of that meeting qualifies, as do emergency moves made between meetings. The primary resolution source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, with credible media reports serving as a fallback. Traders currently price a 59.5% probability of a hike, placing this outcome close to a coin flip. It has traded in a range from 38.5% to 65.5%. Total volume has reached $2.6M. The market’s resolution window begins on December 16, 2025, and any rate increase before the October meeting’s conclusion triggers a Yes. If the October meeting does not take place within seven calendar days of its scheduled end date and no qualifying hike has occurred, the market resolves to No by default.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be increased between December 16, 2025 and the conclusion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
How is the market resolved?
It resolves to Yes if a rate hike occurs within the qualifying window, including any emergency moves. Otherwise, it resolves to No. If the October meeting does not take place within seven days of its scheduled end date and no hike has occurred, it resolves to No.
What counts as a qualifying rate hike?
Any increase in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, announced by the Federal Reserve, qualifies. This includes hikes resulting from scheduled FOMC meetings or emergency actions.
When does the qualifying period begin?
The period starts on December 16, 2025, and ends at the completion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
What if the October 2026 meeting is delayed or canceled?
If the meeting does not occur within seven calendar days of its scheduled end date and no qualifying hike has been announced by then, the market automatically resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice