Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 2.5% to 0.3% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Greater Tunb Island: Will Iran Lose Control?
Markets currently price the probability that Greater Tunb Island will no longer be under Iranian control by August 31 at 0.6%. For that to happen, another state or internationally backed authority would need to establish actual governmental or military control over the territory.
0.6%-0.8 pts 24h
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Updated · Volume $55.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 0.6% | -0.8 |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario is Iran losing control by the deadline; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 5.9% to 2.8% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 21.8% to 6.0% — a 15.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 23.2% to 7.2% — a 15.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 35.4% to 23.2% — a 12.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 34.8% — a 32.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 2.5% — a 34.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 28.6% — a 21.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.5% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Trading on this question has seen the probability fluctuate between 0.3% and 51.0%, with a -0.8 pts move over the past day. The market resolves to “Yes” if, by 11:59 PM ET on August 31, Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Isolated raids, temporary landings, bombardment, or naval presence offshore do not qualify. A transfer under a negotiated settlement counts only after actual control on the island is confirmed. If control remains contested or unclear by the deadline, the market resolves to “No”. The primary resolution sources are official statements from the governments and militaries involved, alongside consensus credible reporting. The outcome hinges on whether control actually changes hands by the resolution deadline, Oct 1, 2026. Any formal assertion of control—backed by credible reports—would be evaluated against these criteria. No events after the deadline affect the contract.
FAQ
What exactly qualifies as “no longer under Iranian control”?
The market requires that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control there. Temporary disruptions, raids, or naval presence do not count.
What happens if there’s a negotiated handover?
A negotiated transfer, ceasefire, or surrender agreement only qualifies once actual control has been established on the island. An announcement or claim without physical control is insufficient.
What if control is contested or unclear?
If control is contested, unclear, or disputed at the resolution deadline, the market resolves to “No”. Only clearly established new control counts.
When does this market resolve?
The market cuts off at 11:59 PM ET on August 31. If control has not demonstrably changed by that cut-off, it resolves to “No”.
How is the outcome determined?
The resolution relies on official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting. No single source is decisive on its own.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice